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OPEC predicts a boom in oil demand


A new OPEC report predicts that oil demand will remain strong over the next two decades, reaching nearly 110 million barrels per day by 2040.

OPEC thinks oil demand will soar as populations and economies in developing countries explode. The organization expects demand in 2025 to reach 105.5 million bpd, about 2 million bpd more than last year’s forecast. Last year, the world consumed 97 million barrels of oil a day.

A slowdown in demand in China coupled with Western nations moving away from fossil fuels will slow oil demand growth and near its peak in the middle of the next decade. However, OPEC still thinks that world oil demand will peak at nearly 110 million barrels per day from 2040, up from the 108.1 million barrels per day it forecasted last year.

The organization expects that the global population will increase by 1.6 billion between now and 2045. 96% of the increase is in the developing world. Thus, although the oil demand of the rich countries in the OECD in 2045 will decrease by 10.7 million barrels per day, the demand from outside the bloc will increase by 23.6 million barrels.

Crude oil storage tanks at Cushing, Oklahoma, USA in April 2020. Photo: Reuters

While the share of renewables in the global energy mix will increase significantly, fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas will still dominate for decades, OPEC said.

These fuels will account for about 70% of global energy by 2045, down from the current 80%. The drop will largely come from reduced coal use. Meanwhile, the proportion of oil and gas supply will not change.

OPEC expects the growing oil demand to be largely met by themself. The organization expects oil supplies from OECD countries to remain largely unchanged until 2045, while OPEC’s supply will increase to 42.4 million barrels per day, from 31.6 million barrels per day currently. in.

However, even for OPEC, meeting that output could be difficult. In recent months, most OPEC members have been unable to meet their own production targets.

Therefore, OPEC expects the industry to need investments totaling $12.1 trillion by 2045. This is $300 billion more than expected last year, to meet demand and secure world energy security.

As the United Nations prepares for a climate conference in Egypt in November, oil-producing countries say investments in oil have been “disregarded”. They warn that “chronic underinvestment” risks exacerbating the energy security crisis.

“We appreciate what each energy source can offer, from affordability, energy security and the need to reduce emissions,” said Haitham al-Ghais, OPEC Secretary General. According to him, all options, solutions and technologies together must be used.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says new investments in fossil fuels must halt if the world is to meet its goal of keeping global warming under control. Last week, the IEA forecast that global fossil fuel demand could peak as soon as this decade, as the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine conflict spurs a global shift to greener energy.

According to VnExpress

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